UN approved new sanctions on Iran. Will they work?

Will Tehran comply with international demands over its nuclear program? UN Security Council resolution 1929 was passed by 12 votes. Brazil and Turkey voted against. Lebanon abstained.

Questions:

Do think the sanctions are sufficient? Is it possible to achieve through the sanctions some breakthrough in the stalemate around the nuclear program of Iran?

Answers:

Leonard Spector, Deputy Director and Director, Washington, DC, Office, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies

The sanctions are stronger than they appear, assuming that the United States and the EU, as well as other states, make them mandatory on their citizens, as is expected.  That will mean an aggressive program to inspect vessels and aircraft carrying cargo to Iran where there is a suspicion that the cargo includes nuclear or missile items.  It will also squeeze a number of financial concerns that are thought to be supporting these programs, including the Iranian central bank.  And the heavy arms embargo is also substantial.

The EU is expected to soon announce mandatory sanctions based on the UN Security Council resolution and the U.S. will shortly be enacting a law with a similar goal that will also attempt to curtail the export to Iran of refined petroleum products.

All of this may help bring Iran to the bargaining table under circumstances where it is willing to restrict some of its most sensitive nuclear activities.  Indeed the threat of sanctions appeared to push them towards accepting the Turkey-Brazil fuel swap deal last month, which they had previously rejected.

Bahman Baktiari, Professor, Director, The Middle East Center, University of Utah

These sanctions will not  have any practical impact on Iranian leaders’ decision,  nor will they force Iran to modify its position.  However,   the sanctions will have  enormous symbolic value.  Facing serious domestic opposition,  and spending a huge amount of human resources for diplomatic campaign against the United States,   will not allow them to attend to serious economic issues at home.

Constructive engagement,   respectful dialogue,   and accurate information about Iran’s real capabilities for going nuclear,  will be helpful in breaking the stalemate.  We do not have 100 percent information about Iran’s nuclear capability.  No one knows if the government in Iran is caught up in its own rhetoric of boasting its nuclear capabilities,  or whether it has made the strategic decision to build weapons.

Abbas Milani, Director, Iranian Studies Program, Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

The sanctions were in my mind the inevitable consequence of the path undertaken by the Iranian regime. The Turkish/Brazilian agreement was an empty gesture by the regime intended only to derail the sanctions and abuse the good will of Turkey and Brazil. There is in my view out of the impasse unless there is a more democratic transparent and lawful and lawabiding government in Iran.

Patrick Clawson, Deputy Director for Research, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Sanctions offer good prospects at slowing Iran’s nuclear program, which has recently had serious technical problems & defections (esp. since last presidential elections). Delay is good — one reason is that this government is unpopular, so its future is clouded.

A breakthrough is less likely. If pressure grows, Iran may agree to some deals like that with Turkey & Brazil — but it is unlikely Iran will implenent such deals for very long.

Alireza Nader, International Affairs Analyst, RAND Corporation

Sanctions alone will not solve the nuclear impasse. The Iranian government appears to view the military and political benefits of the nuclear program- and perhaps nuclear weapons capability- as outweighing the costs, for now. Sanctions may in fact harden Iran’s resolve to continue with the program.

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