Can Romney find a place for Santorum in his campaign?

Let the general election campaign begin!

Questions:

1. Does it mean the race is definitely over and Mitt Romney will be the nominee? Or is there possibility of some surprise that would deny him the nomination?

2. The negative campaign which Romney’s team unleashed upon Santorum and vice versa will probably cease now. Can it positively influence Republican chances in November or is it already too late?

3. Santorum got much better results than expected before the campaign season and he has a big following among conservatives who don’t like Romney. Do you think Romney can find a place for Santorum in his campaign and can they join forces? Or did the negative campaign left such bitter taste that the cooperation is unimaginable?

Answers:

Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of North Texas

1. It is all but over. I suppose a surprise is possible, but highly unlikely. At this point, nobody is going to derail Romney. So unless there is a dark secret that Romney is hiding or he dies, the race is definitely over and Romney will be the Republican nominee. Let the general election campaign begin!

2. Romney had begun targeted his fire on Obama in recent weeks and this will only continue. The trick about the nomination phase is two-fold. First, the negativity could come back to Romney in that an attack by a Republican (say Santorum) on a Republican (Romney) may appears to be more credible to some voters than a Democrat on Republican attack. Thus, the negativity gives Obama some additional ammo for the general election campaign. Second, the candidate himself—Romney—has had to take positions that are more conservative than the median voter in American politics. Whether Romney really believes some of those things he said, he had to say them to appeal to more conservative Republican voters and secure the nomination. But now, he has to work to, uh, revise those positions in a way that he can appeal to the moderates, independents, and party leaners, both Republicans and Democrats.

3. If Santorum wants Obama defeated, then he will look to back Romney. I am not sure what place Santorum would play in a Romney campaign and, frankly, I bet that Santorum steps out of the political limelight to focus on his daughter. Still, if the party asks Rick Santorum to be the good guy and come to Romney’s support, I think that he will. He’ll just need a month or two to let the wounds heal and figure out how he can be true to himself while also supporting his political party. That is not always easy to do; but Hillary Clinton did it four years ago in a much closer contest. I bet Santorum can do so, too.

But keep in mind, Romney still has a “conservative problem” and he may not be able to do enough to motivate these voters to turn out in November. Thus, 2012 may be more about turnout than anything else. If so, Obama has the edge.

Eric Ostermeier, Research Associate, Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, University of Minnesota

1. Barring an unforeseen scandal involving Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum’s departure from the race means there is now a 99+ percent chance Romney will secure enough delegates during the remaining primaries and caucuses through June to have a majority heading into the Republican National Convention later this summer. This will, for all practical purposes, guarantee his nomination. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul may decide to remain in the race for their own personal reasons (for Gingrich, his ego, for Paul to communicate his libertarian message), but they are not serious contenders for the nomination at this point in the campaign.

2. Negative campaigning has become so common in U.S. politics that what has transpired so far in terms of negative attacks will not hurt Romney in his general election campaign against Barack Obama. People forget that Mitt Romney and former Republican frontrunner Rick Perry endured very brutal verbal exchanges during the September and October Republican debates, but now the intra-party wars between those two candidates are a distant memory. The American voters will eventually focus on the Romney vs. Obama battle – but most will not pay attention to the election at all until the last 1-2 months of the campaign in the autumn.

3. I do not think Romney will be eager to involve Rick Santorum in his campaign – but not because of the negative campaigning. Santorum’s support was rooted less in his personal popularity and more in an anti-Romney sentiment among some Republican voters. Romney’s reluctance to join forces with Santorum is that Romney – at his core – is much more of a moderate candidate, and would like to enhance his appeal to independents as the campaign moves into the general election phase. Santorum is a very polarizing figure due to his extreme positions on social issues and Romney would therefore probably prefer not to involve Santorum in his campaign if he can help it. I would be extremely shocked to see Romney pick Santorum as his running mate.