Macron has a tough road ahead

French President Emmanuel Macron is in the office almost for one year. How do you assess Macron’s ability to reform the EU? Macron showed some concerns for the EU future as he just said in Strasbourg that in these difficult times, the European democracy is our best chance and that we see authoritarians all around us, and the answer is not authoritarian democracy. Read few comments.

French President Emmanuel Macron. Credit: http://www.elysee.fr

Emmanuel Comte, Research Fellow, Department of Contemporary History, Vienna School of International Studies

You ask me about Mr Macron’s ability to reform the EU. Brexit has reinforced France’s negotiating position within the EU. France has the second largest economy of the group, the biggest military, and the largest territory, strategically located for European trade. This being said, France’s hand to reform the EU is quite limited. If one takes the two major points of discussion today in the EU – migration and the Eurozone – then France has very little bargaining power. France is a marginal player in the absorption of immigrants in Europe, given the structural incapacity of its labour market to integrate immigrants on a large scale. Regarding the Euro, France still displays massive public deficit and debt along with very low growth. Germany is traditionally the main player for both migration and monetary matters. Given this situation in France, this pattern is unlikely to change, despite Mr Macron’s rhetoric and voluntarism.

Carine Germond, Associate Professor, Norwegian University of Science and Technology

During the presidential campaign and since his election French President Emmanuel Macron has styled himself into a reformer of both Europe and France and has defended a pro-reform agenda. From words to reality there is however a big difference, as Macron is currently experiencing in France. With regard to European reforms, the main challenge for Macron is to find the partners to support and implement his reformist agenda. Angela Merkel’s Germany was the natural partner for such an endeavor, not least since Macron had put a revival of the Franco Engine has a key foreign policy goal. Yet, the disappointing results of the CDU in the last federal election, the failed governmental negotiations with the FDP, and the ensuing protracted negotiations to form a Grand Coalition with the SPD have considerably delayed Macron’s plan. Moreover, although Merkel may be sympathetic to some of Macron’s ideas for reforming Europe, it remains to be seen whether her  partners will agree to them. Some of Macron’s most ambitious ideas for euro-zone reform have already been shelved, in large part in view of the obvious lack of German appetence for them (especially any ideas of debt-pooling). But other matters, such completing the banking union, reforming the euro-zone’s bail-out fund and creating automatic mechanisms to restructure the debt of troubled countries, may prove just as contentious.

This notwithstanding there are few other alternative to a Franco-German cooperation whether the French president looks to the south or the north. The latest elections in Italy have brought into focus the rise of Eurosceptic parties as a political force to be reckoned with in a traditionally pro-European country. Northern countries, spearheaded by the Netherlands, have also clearly put a brake of Macron plans for sweeping reforms. At the same time, the window of opportunity for such reforms that had been opened with Macron’s election is slowly closing. Macron’s reform plans may not solve all the problems of the EU but they may help restore restore European citizens’ trust in the EU. At a time when illiberalism seems to win over in countries like Hungary, where the democratic credentials of Viktor Orban’s victory have been criticized by the OSCE in unusual strong words for an EU member states, or Poland, failure is not an option for EU leaders.

Emily Mansfield, Analyst, Europe, The Economist Intelligence Unit

I’m afraid that Macron has a tough road ahead of him on European reform!

His speech in Strasbourg was very different from the one he gave at the Sorbonne last September: rather than a bold list of policy proposals, this was a rallying cry for Europe. In part, this reflects the degree of opposition he has faced on the issue between these two big speeches, in particular from Germany.

He has put plans for euro zone reform, which were always going to be the most controversial in Berlin, on the back burner. Some of his ideas for EU reform — such as reforming taxation of big technology companies, harmonising corporate tax rates and strengthening the bloc’s external borders — may prove achievable.

But we don’t expect him to be able to enact the kind of root and branch reform he would like to do, owing to the difficulty of reaching agreement across the bloc. Even putting greater pressure on countries such as Hungary and Poland will be difficult within the current structures of the EU. And Macron’s desire for the EU to tax and spend more robustly over the longer term will continue to face strong resistance in Germany, even once the UK has left the bloc.

Enrico Reuter, Lecturer in Public and Social Policy, University of York

I don’t think Macron’s attempts to reform the EU will lead to much. Germany seems reluctant to engage in more substantive changes to the Eurozone, and Macron faces a range of domestic issues, from the railway strikes to university protests. Moreover, his earlier speech last year to outline his EU reform ambitions was more rhetoric than a collection of coherent and specific proposals. And that he claims to fight authoritarianism is slightly ironic given the authoritarian tendencies of his own reign.

Robert Ladrech, Professor of European Politics, Keele University

President Macron has an agenda, and he believes that he can revive the Franco-German relationship and set it on a pro-EU integration path. He is interested in monetary reform (a European Monetary System) that can take care of future member state bailouts if necessary; a EU finance minister; transnational lists for elections to the European Parliament; etc. To date, on may of these items, he has generated public and elite interest, but not much else. Chancellor Merkel has her own agenda, and one could say that domestic German politics is influencing her EU policy, much to the annoyance of President Macron. The AfD may do well in 2019 EP elections; her sister party the CSU wants to pull the government further to the right especially on immigration; and her coalition partner the SPD wants to separate their identity from the government. So she is not big on the idea of a EMS, a EU finance minister, nor anything that seems to be like a financial transfer union between rich northern EU and poorer southern EU member states.

So Macron generates the ideas, but his necessary partner, Germany, is not at present very much interested in EU change. He will show his frustration soon.