Dutch troops leave Afghanistan. Any influence on the mission?

During the four-year deployment in Afghanistan, at least 24 Dutch soldiers  reported killed. They have served also with the  Slovak troops.

Question:

Taliban congratulates Netherlands for pulling soldiers out of Afghanistan. It is of course a part of propaganda but what kind of impact will have this withdrawal on the mission in Afghanistan from your point of view?

Answers:

Edwin Bakker, Head of the Security and Conflict Programme of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’

The propagandistic remarks by the Taliban have not been taken very seriously in the Netherlands. The news about Afghanistan at the moment is dominated by the withdrawal (over 50% by now) and also the wikileaks incident. The latter did not reveal very much about the activities of the Dutch troops in Afghanistan (just one out of 92.000 reports). Both the remarks by the Taliban and the Wikileaks reports were not considered big news because most Dutch did not believe the mission was a success anyway and most Dutch are happy to see the troops return home (after more than four years, more than 20 dead and having spend more than 2 billion Euro in Afghanistan). As an observer, I would take the remarks by the Taliban a bit more serious. It seems they are well aware of public and political debates in the Netherlands and they do try to split the alliance by ‘rewarding’ those who leave with ‘congratulations’. They do see that the alliance is divided and in combination with the wikileaks release of classified documents and the withdrawal of a number of countries like the Netherlands it will have an impact on the support levels for the Afghanistan mission in various countries that still have troops out there. The withdrawal of the Dutch might have an impact in countries like Australia, the UK and perhaps Slovakia with whom they closely cooperated. Their approach (militarily, politically, diplomatically) is quite different than that of the US and cooperation with the US is far less appealing to these countries than working with other European allies. Many in the Netherlands are worried what will happen now to Uruzgan and wonder what if our efforts and investments in that province will proof to stand the test of time now that the US is in the lead.

Djörn Eversteijn, Dutch security and international affairs analyst

One could argue that the decision to withdraw Dutch troops from Uruzgan province will only have marginal – if any – effects on the outcome of the entire campaign in Afghanistan, since the bulk of the Dutch contribution focused on just one of Afghanistan’s provinces: Uruzgan, and although the Dutch contributed a relatively large number of troops to the International Security Assistance Force, it remained a small percentage of the entire number of ISAF troops present in Afghanistan.

On a provincial level, this argument fails to appreciate both the accomplishments of the Dutch troops, which have contributed to the security situation and development – however relative – in Uruzgan province, as well as the potential consequences for the people of Uruzgan, who reportedly fear an increase in civilian casualties as a result of the “American approach” after the Dutch hand over their responsibilities to the United States, possibly culminating in increasing support for the Taliban amongst the populace.

At the same time, and perhaps more accurately, one could also argue that the Dutch decision to pull out will have – potentially serious – repercussions for the outcome of the campaign in Afghanistan. On the one hand the Dutch decision generated fissure within the transatlantic alliance and furthermore might influence – if it has not already done so – decision-making within other NATO member states regarding contributions to the ISAF mission in Afghanistan. Both developments contribute to at least a certain degree of increased war weariness within the various countries contributing to the ISAF mission and bolster the resolve of the Taliban and additional non-compliant Afghan elements in a campaign that has already proved to be a daunting challenge to the United States and its allies.

Bill Roggio, Editor, The Long War Journal

The withdrawal of Dutch troops from Afghanistan is being portrayed by the Taliban as a victory in their propaganda. The Taliban have sought to divide and conquer NATO buy forcing countries to pull out, thus making it easier for other countries to abandon Afghanistan. When countries withdraw before the Taliban are defeated, the Taliban flaunt the pullout as a victory.

On a military level, the Dutch withdrawal deprives NATO of nearly 2,000 troops that were deployed to Uruzgan province, a Taliban stronghold. This forces NATO to use their “surge” troops to cover an area previously covered by the Dutch, and denies NATO to ability to reinforce in other needed areas.