Will the referendum in Romania change something?

Romania holds a referendum Sunday on impeaching a suspended President Traian Basescu. Regardless of the result would you say the referendum can solve anything, or not and why?

Answer:

Sergiu Miscoiu, Executive Director, Centre for Political Studies and International Relations

The answer is NO. To put in a simple way, the crisis is generated by issues of political culture (politics perceived as war among clans, no ideological yardsticks or cleavages, paternalism and absence of resignation as an institutional practice), by issues of personal character (Basescu as the most conflict political individual after 1989 and the emergence of a Basescu complex among the other politicians – nobody able to defeat him in elections), and by issues related to concrete and veridical fear (three of the most famous and powerful business and media tycoons close to the actual liberal-socialist coalition trialed by the Anti-Corruption Department, while the former prime minister Adrian Nastase definitively convicted to 2 years; control of the judiciary passes by prosecutors nominations by the President).

If the referendum will not be validated because of the lack of participation (50% attendence required for validation), the war will continue, as parliamentary elections are scheduled in November. The President will continue his sabotage against the gov., and the gov will be preoccupied only by fighting the opposition and Basescu.

If the referendum will be validated and Basescu will step away, all he powers will get in the hands of the social-liberal union without any elections – only as a result of the betrayal of some fmr allies of Basescu and of the emergency ordinances. The opposition will condemn the frauds and the EU will most certainly penalize Romania by cutting the structural funds and by withdrawing some of Ro’s participation to the decision making processes, maybe even the vote in the European Council. His will have bitter effects on the citizens’ lives, as the Ro currency is already falling every day and will lead us in front of the civil disobedience.

The only reasonable solution is the consensual resignation of the suspended President, the Prime Minister and the interim President and the organization of early elections for the Pres and the Parliament under the strict surveillance of the EU and of the OSCE.

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