How much of Iran is in Israeli air strikes in Syria?

Read few comments.

Questions:

1. Israel said that the latest air strikes were against Hezbollah and not the Syrian regime, but what is your view on the current development, would you say it may lead to some kind of Syria-Israel confrontation (perhaps indirect) or not?

2. What kind of impact, if any, the actions of Israel may have on the conflict in Syria?

Answers:

Ahron BregmanDepartment of War Studies, Kings College London

1. The Israelis are taking a calculated risk. Their assumption is that Assad will be very careful not to mess up with strong Israel and in the meantime they could reduce the amount of weapons -mainly missiles- in the hands of Syria and potentially Hezbollah. It’s also a message to Iran: we are daring And we strike when necessary. And we also have the right ammunition to strike underground. Pictures of recent Israeli attacks in Syria show petrol on fire. This is kept underground.

2. Israel’s actions obviously help the rebels more than it helps Assad – humiliated by these strikes. But if victor, the rebels, In due course, will turn their weapons against Israel.

James DenselowWriter on Middle East politics and security issues

1. I believe that there are several reasons for Israel escalating its attacks on targets inside Syria. The shrinking of Syrian regime sovereignty is also seeing a increasing role played by Hezbollah on one side and al-Nusra Front on the other – both of which are security threats in Israel’s eyes. The weakening of the regime also means that there is less likelihood of a response with a future scenario potentially looking like Lebanon whose airspace is regularly infringed by the Israelis.

2. Israel’s targeting of regime munitions would appear in the short-term to increase the likelihood that the Syrian Opposition can make strategic and tactical gains. However if Iran feels that Israel’s actions have crossed whatever ‘red lines’ they judge there could be a larger destabilisation of the region potentially around the Golan Heights or Lebanon’s border with Israel, a site of a great deal of violence over the past decades.

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