Shutdown and debt ceiling: Deal or no deal?

Read few comments.

Steffen SchmidtUniversity Professor of Political Science, Iowa State University

I believe that there is a 50-50 chance that the US Congress will resolve this and mass at least a short term solution to the budget and debt ceiling.

The Republicans are VERY worried about the behavior of their Tea Party members and now realize what a horrible mistake they made in staying silent when the “Insurgents” (that’s what they are calling them!) veered off course and entered “Never Never Land” the fantasy island where Peter Pan and his friends hang out. Remember that The Maze of Regrets is a maze in Peter Pan in Scarlet where all the mothers of the Lost Boys go to find their boys. The tea Party Republicans are the lost boys for sure!

The traditional Democrats and Republicans now realize the risks to their credibility and to the continued functioning of an orderly society that is posed by the insurgents. Some think it’s too late but I believe that those leaders in Washington and also out in the congressional districts and states who see the train wreck and disaster that could come will now try to put pressure on the rebels to get them to sign off on and vote for a compromise like the one the Senate has crafted.

But, in the longer term the US government is badly broken and will lurch from crisis to crisis as the Tea Party conservatives try to block each dateline for passing budget resolutions and an increase in the debt ceiling.

The only hope several Republicans told me is that in 2014 when all members of the House come up for reelection some of the more extreme House members will be challenged by the Republican party itself in light of the collapse of public trust in the party as a result of these actions over the debt and budget and the government shut down. A second possibility is that Democrats will run candidates who can defeat some of these ultra conservatives but these Democrats would have to be conservative and very focused.

I believe that if things go over the edge on the debt ceiling and a default either happens or is imminent Pres Obama will use executive power to raise the debt ceiling under the Presidents authority to guarantee the full faith and credit of the United States and under the larger “implied” powers of the President under the constitution. Then that decision will go to the Supreme Court who will have to rule on the constitutionality of the action. How that will come out is anyone’s guess but the vote there will probably be 5-4!

Thomas ScottoReader in Government, University of Essex

I believe there will be lots of threats and then a climb down on both sides leading to an eventual deal.  Leaders of both parties cannot be entirely sure who the swing voters would blame if the limit was breached.  For this reason, the political risks on both sides are too high, so it is likely a compromise will be reached.

Steven GreeneAssociate Professor of Political Science, North Carolina State University

Ultimately, I think some deal will be struck because Republicans are getting killed in the public opinion polls over this.  I believe the most likely scenario will be for a bipartisan group of Senators to strike a deal which will put even greater pressure on the House leadership to finally come around and allow a vote to end the crisis.  I think many Republicans are posturing in saying that they don’t think going past the debt ceiling would be so bad, but underneath do recognize that it would be calamitous for the American economy.

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