Turkey elections: Will AKP win majority? And if not?

How do you see the prospect of AKP winning the majority in upcoming snap elections and if this will not happen would you says the AKP will genuinely try to find a coalition partner or perhaps not? Read few comments.

Barın Kayaoğlu, Independent Analyst and Consultant

I don’t see AKP winning a majority on November 1. As for why I say that, you will see that the one by the most reliable polling firm, KONDA, shows that we will have virtually the same result on Sunday as we did on June 7.

And once you put KONDA’s figures into this simulator, it shows that AKP and CHP picking up a few seats, MHP losing quite a few, and HDP virtually the same.

At this point, whether PM Davutoglu could find a coalition partner depends a lot on RTE. RTE screwed up AKP-CHP coalition talks in July and August and there’s little indication right now that he will act differently. I think many AKP leaders – or at least those who are not completely under RTE’s control – would like to stay in power and move the country forward but those beholden to RTE have another agenda.

Joshua Walker, Director, Global Programs, APCO Worldwide, Non-Resident Transatlantic Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States

I think the AKP will fall short of an absolute majority needed to form a single-party government, however unlike the last election I think they will find a coalition partner. The most likely outcome is an AKP-MHP coalition given the close ideological affinities especially in light of increased tensions between Kurds and Turks in the country that makes the HDP a less attractive option. Perhaps the most intriguing option would be a grand coalition between AKP-CHP while ideologically far a part could offer a national unity government that in the short-term might be the most stable.

Dimitris TsarouhasGreek Politics Specialist Group, Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Bilkent University

The prospect of an AKP outright victory (i.e. a single party government) is quite high, as evident by the latest opinion polls. Yet it seems safe to assume that the HDP party will surpass the 10% electoral threshold again.

If the AKP fails again to form a single party government, they will have no choice but to enter a coalition with either the CHP or the MHP: Going to the polls again would be detrimental to political and economic stability and, combined with vote fatigue, would lead to serious governance questions in the country.

Özgür Ünlühisarcikli, Ankara Office Director, German Marshall Fund of the United States

The AKParty’s winning the majority in the upcoming elections would come as a surprise for everyone. If the AKParty can not gain a majority, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) will be open to coalition negotiations with the AKParty as they were the last time. I believe both Prime Minister Davutoğlu and CHP Leader Kılıçdaroğlu will be willing and constructive during these negotiations. President Erdoğan, even if not very happy with the result, will also be accommodating as the AKParty’s own constituency would lose patience if a coalition government is not formed and the country goes to a third election.


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