After the Iowa caucus who really need to score well in New Hampshire from Dems and GOP, and why? Read few comments.
Christopher Larimer, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Northern Iowa
The Iowa Caucuses have completely reshaped the expectations for several GOP candidates, especially Marco Rubio and Donald Trump. In the case of Rubio, yes he has the momentum, but there is also now pressure to do well in NH. He benefited from low expectations going into IA, but now there are high expectations for NH. Rubio’s rise also puts more pressure on the other “establishment” candidates (Kasich, Bush, and Christie) to do well. For Donald Trump, a first place finish in NH would hold off the massive calls for him to step aside which would undoubtedly come should he not win in NH. Cruz’s win in IA was significant for his campaign, but unless he also finishes in the top two in NH, it may not mean much for the longer haul of the nomination process. Cruz winning IA, placing second in NH, and presumably doing well in SC, would be significant, and keep the contest going for several months. As for the Democrats, the close finish was interesting, but the Clinton campaign got what it came for (a victory), and should she finish a relatively close second in NH (within 5 to 7 points), it would be tough for Sanders to keep up as the contest shifts to other states.
Joseph Bafumi, Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is well ahead in the polls. Since he is a regional favorite, no one will be surprised to see Hillary Clinton lose. Both will go on regardless. On the Republican side, NH is much more important. It will help winnow down the field. I think Trump and Cruz will go on even if they perform less well than expected so long as they don’t implode. Trump will probably win and Cruz won in Iowa. He looks to be in good shape in more conservative states that will have their primaries after NH. There are only one or two more tickets out of NH. Look for all the remaining candidates to work really hard to be in second, third or fourth place. Anyone who performs worse than fourth is very unlikely to win the nomination and most will drop out right away.
Filed under: Politics, United States, US politics | Tagged: Bernie Sanders, Democrats, Donald Trump, GOP, Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio, New Hampshire, Politics, Republicans, Ted Cruz, United States, US politics, US presidential election 2016 |