US military base in Poland: Will it happen?

Poland offers US up to $2bln for permanent military base Do you think the US might be really interested in this and, though we do not not much about the details, what would be the advantage of such installation from military, strategic point of view? (Predictably, Russian reaction is that it will make Poland a target).

The first M1A2 Abrams Tanks owned by 3rd Armor Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division touched ground in Swietozow, Poland, on January 10, 2017. Credit: https://www.army.mil/

John R. Deni*, Research Professor US Army War College, Author of NATO and Article 5

I think there’s broad agreement within Washington that the U.S. military posture in Europe needs additional refinement.  At present, most but not all of that ‘refinement’ is taking place through additional rotationally deployed presence and capability in Eastern Europe.  Washington remains reluctant to undermine the consensus among its key Europe allies — especially Germany — that permanent U.S. presence in Poland or the Baltic States might bring about.  However, it is quite clear (as I argue here) that permanent presence is less expensive for the United States than rotational deployment, especially for heavier, armored units and assuming those units bring their armored equipment to Europe for each rotation.  Moreover, it is also clear that troop and family morale is better with permanent presence, and that deterrence and assurance are more effectively achieved with permanent presence.

* These views do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Government

Michael KofmanResearch Scientist, CNA Corporation, Fellow, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center

The Polish desire for an armored division has long been known. I think it’s a non-starter and seems uncoordinated within the Polish government. The issue is not one of money, but more of need, and available US manpower for Europe. There is no clear need for such a force posture and permanent basing comes with a host of political issues.

Also they seem to not be reading SecDef Mattis when he says our new way is Dynamic Force Employment and surge flexibility not permanent basing.

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