Worst debate ever for Biden?: What will Democrats do?

Read a few comments:

President Joe Biden (L) and ex-President Donald Trump.

Questions:

1. It seems after Biden’s performance in the TV debate, Democrats are talking about whether the president can be replaced as the party nominee. Do they have a reason to panic, and do you really think they could replace Biden?

2. Yes, Biden’s performance was mostly poor, especially at the beginning of the debate. But Trump was lying all the time. Did he really boost his chances to win the White House? 

Answers:

Michael Kraft, Emeritus Professor, University of Wisconsin – Green Bay

1. I thought Joe Biden’s debate performance was one of the worst I have ever seen, and clearly a lot of Democrats are anxious about how well he can now do in November. There is some talk about replacing him as the nominee, though that would be tough to do at this late date. Perhaps Biden can recover sufficiently, but there is no doubt that his Republican opponents will do all that they can to underscore his poor debate performance and imply that it is further proof that he is too old to serve another term as president. They are sure to use clips from the debate to make the case that Biden has lost his energy and mental acuity. 

2. On the other side of the debate, Trump’s performance was also extremely poor if judged by his bluster and lies throughout. Practically everything he said about the Biden administration was either untrue or a complete fantasy with no connection whatsoever to reality, and none of Trump’s outrageous comments was challenged by the debate moderators who said they would be checking the accuracy of the candidates’ statements. So, the poorly informed electorate might well conclude that Trump “won” the debate simply because of his obvious energy and pointed attacks on Biden.

Diana Carlin, Professor Emerita of Communication, Saint Louis University

1. Biden’s performance was not what Democrats wanted or needed. The debate underscored the age issue and explanations of a cold and stuttering compensations cannot erase the effects of the turning of many calendars. That said, Biden did a better job of answering questions and did defend his record on several issues, but not with the strength he needed. He did do something I said he needed to do in a previous response to one of your questions and that was acknowledge that some people have not experienced a recovery and he discussed some of what he would do in the future, but that response could have been stronger to include the evasion of a major recession and falling prices on many essentials. 

Democrats have reason to be concerned because undecided, independent, and soft-leaning voters may vote for a third candidate or switch to Trump if they are not discerning that his confident delivery was the result of mostly fabricated or unsubstantiated facts or non-answers. He had his agenda of topics he wanted to discuss and he pounded away at them with nearly every response. The format did not allow the moderators to push Trump to defend his responses and that was unfortunate. When a moderator asks a probing follow up asking for the basis for a claim, that is not inserting oneself into the debate, that is performing a service to viewers who may not be aware of how seriously Trump strayed from the truth. 

As to whether Biden can be replaced, technically, he has not been nominated. However, it would be difficult to get committed delegates to abandon Biden especially since there is no clear choice to replace him. The chaos it would create might be worse. Harris is a logical choice, but if attempts to dethrone Biden and replace with Harris did not work, it would create disunity in the ticket and possibly the need for Biden to replace her. Harris could not easily support a draft Harris move. Democrats need a clear message of the choice the election provides and a chaotic convention would not provide that. It does not appear that Biden can be talked into stepping down. 

If debate history is examined, Biden’s performance was not unlike Reagan’s in the first Reagan-Mondale debate where the age issue became real. Reagan quickly dispelled it in the second debate with his quip about not making an issue of Mondale’s youth and inexperience. Reagan changed prep tactics for the second debate and was in control. Biden does not have the luxury of a second debate shortly on the heels of this one so he has to hit the campaign trail and show the spirit that he has in the past and his command of the narrative.  

2. Debates don’t change many minds but confirm vote decisions. Undecided voters use them to help decide and often there is a bump for one candidate but that bump may not be sustained unless additional debates or other factors in the campaign confirm what was learned in the first debate. Trump voters are staying with Trump because they believe the lies and Biden supporters are going to stick with him because they would not vote for Trump. Some Biden and undecided voters will either sit it out or go to a third candidate which will help Trump. 

In 2020 73.1 million people watched the first Trump-Biden matchup. CNN’s viewership last night was 3.2 million–a far cry from the usual debate numbers. Other networks aired the debate but if they had similar numbers (ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC, MSNBC, Univision, CNBC, PBS, CW, the total would be approximately 32 million–less than half the viewership in 2020. Research I have conducted does indicate that post-debate coverage has an impact, especially for those who did not watch the debate or who were not highly informed. So how the two are portrayed by the media is almost as important as what was said in the debate. If fact-checking of Trump gets headlines and emphasis on Biden’s answers supporting his successes are also emphasized, it could dilute some of Trump’s “win.” History does show that winning a debate does not always translate into winning an election. Reagan is proof of that as is Obama who clearly lost the first debate to Romney.

Robert Schmuhl, Professor of American Studies, University of Notre Dame

1. The Democratic National Convention, which takes place in August, is an opportunity to replace Joe Biden as the party’s 2024 presidential candidate. During Thursday’s debate, he had one objective: Prove to voters he’s physically and intellectually able to serve four more years. He failed to do that. Many of his statements seemed to wander and weren’t clear. Top-level Democrats are worrying that Biden isn’t their best standard bearer going into the fall campaign. 

2. Donald Trump told falsehood after falsehood and refused to respond to several questions. But his performance was energetic and stood in stark contrast to Biden’s presentation. Trump probably helped his candidacy among undecided voters. Sympathy for Biden won’t lead to greater support for him. 

Steven Greene, Professor of Political Science, North Carolina State University

1. If not panic, Democrats have reason to be deeply concerned.  The problem is that Biden’s flaws in the debate played exactly into the concerns Americans already have about him.  I’ve read smart people who say there’s no way they could replace him and smart people who say, yes, they actually could.  We are in completely uncharted territory here. We’ll have to wait and see how polling and media reaction/narratives take shape over the next few days.

2. Sadly, Trump showing utter disregard for the truth is essentially priced in with Trump.  People have come not to expect honesty.  In Biden’s case, his job was to allay fears that his age has not diminished his ability to perform his job well.  But, rather, his performance affirmed those fears.  

Steffen Schmidt, Lucken Endowed Professor of Political Science Emeritus, Iowa State University.

In debates factual knowledge by the candidate, it’s important. But it is NOT what wins you a debate in the era of visual television!

Remember that in the famous Nixon vs JFK debate people who listened in the RADIO said Nixon was the better informed, more knowledgeable of the two. 

However, some good research showed that people who watched on TV said John F Kennedy won. 

The truth and facts? Most people don’t know what the facts are! Most people don’t listen to news or read the best papers. In 2024 they have already been groomed by social media. Facts and truth are nothing more than what makes them feel good; what agrees with their preferences of what SHOULD be true !   

Why did Nixon (and Biden) lose their debates? 

Because Nixon was sweating, his 5-o’clock beard “shadow” made him look bad (instead of shaving for the debate they had covered it with some makeup that did not work. He looked nervous.  

Kennedy looked fit, energetic, relaxed, humorous, younger, more like a leader in control. I believe that the Biden debate preparation process was all wrong they isolated him for several days, tired him, drilled him with too many facts and statistics which he tried to spew out in horrible sentences. 

Trump did not prepare for the debate. He went in relaxed, pumped up, with several repetitive themes (“This man is the worse Pres in US history, The Afghan withdrawal was the most horrible defeat in history, massive criminal horses of immigrants are destroying Medicare, Social Security, our hospitals and schools.”  — over and over.

That’s when people heard AND SAW. 

Yes, the Democrats can choose a different candidate at their national convention. Biden can “get sick” and pull out of the race freeing up the delegates to become free agents.  

I think it’s necessary for Democrats to find a young, dynamic, aggressive, smart, charismatic candidate to replace Biden. 

Here are the names I’m hearing. Gov Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gov of California Newsom, Gov of Michigan Whitmer. VP Harris is not a good candidate – her performance has been poor. 

Lori Cox Han, Professor of Political Science, Chapman University

Both candidates performed poorly, though I think that both just solidified the views of many that Trump is a liar and that Biden is perhaps too old for the job (especially another four years if he gets reelected). I doubt that Trump convinced many voters that were on the fence to support him, though Biden did not reassure those same voters. We’ll see how things on the Democratic side play out over the next few weeks. It’s not completely out of the question that someone else could be at the top of the ticket!