Will election change Germany’s foreign policy?

Do you expect some changes, adjustment of German foreign policy or more of the same after the election? Does is also depends on if FDP will be a part of the coalition as its leader Christian Lindner was in the EU policy more critical to French President Emmanuel Macron and in Russian policy more sympathetic to Moscow? Read few comments.

Jörg Forbrig, Senior Transatlantic Fellow for Central and Eastern Europe, German Marshall Fund

Let’s distinguish foreign policy and EU policy here. On foreign policy, we will mostly see continuity. The main reason is that key foreign policy questions are handled by Chancellor Merkel who is all but certain to be at the helm of the new government. Whoever will be her coalition partner – SPD, FDP, or Greens – will largely subordinate to the line set by Merkel. A second reason is that in the EU, major foreign policy questions are handled collectively. Whether on Russia or Turkey, for example, the leeway for Germany to make principal changes to its foreign policy is limited, since more often than not, the consensus among EU members is required. This means that many of the campaign statements, such as those seemingly pro-Russian ones by the SPD or the FDP, are just rhetoric without consequence.

In turn, EU policy will be very contentious. There are fundamental questions on the future of the EU – reforms of the Eurozone, handling of Brexit, multi-speed Europe, reigning in illiberal trends – that will need to be answered soon. And on these questions, there are principal differences among German parties. The FDP is a case in point here. Its leader, Lindner, has made it clear that he is opposed to deeper Eurozone integration which is, in turn, the broad direction proposed by French President Macron. If the FDP was to join the government, this would be a major stumbling block for the French-German tandem, without which it won’t be possible to take the Eurozone forward. Seen from this angle, Merkel may well be tempted to seek another grand coalition with the Social Democrats who are not principally opposed to Macron’s proposals, or to seek a so-called Jamaica coalition, in which these FDP reservations are offset by the staunchly integrationist Greens.

Judging from the latest polls, these are anyway the only two coalition options at Merkel’s disposal. Neither won’t be easy to build. A grand coalition with the SPD will have to be agreed by the SPD membership, which feels its party did not gain from being in government and may prefer the opposition bench. A Jamaica constellation will have to bridge fundamental differences in programme and style between the Greens and the FDP. But the basic choice among these two complicated options falls to Chancellor Merkel. And she will have to make that choice with a view to Europe: does she want to make a major push on European integration, which may then well become her political legacy? We frankly do not know. Merkel remains, even after 12 years in office, a bit of an enigma.

Marcel Dirsus, Political Scientist, Doctoral Candidate, University of Kiel

The fundamentals of German foreign policy will remain in place. Germany will remain committed to the European Union, NATO and strong transatlantic ties. Merkel is set to remain Chancellor, but her coalition partners matter. A government that includes the FDP will be difficult for Macron to deal with on Eurozone reform. The FDP will seek to veto anything of substance that looks like a transfer union. Although Merkel and the CDU are in favour of maintaining strong sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, her likely coalition partners have spoken out in favour of easing sanctions. What will ultimately happen will be determined by the election results and the subsequent coalition negotiations.

Jonathan Olsen, Professor of Government, Chair of the Department of History and Government, Texas Woman’s University

I really don’t expect any FP changes regardless of who’s in the coalition. Merkel calls the shots in that and neither SPD nor FDP will have discernible influence, in my opinion